Africa is decisive in the global green economy, holding nearly 30% of the world’s critical mineral reserves and over 70% of global cobalt. Demand for lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel is projected to quadruple by 2030, generating US$16 trillion in revenues for sub-Saharan Africa over the next 25 years.
Governments are shifting from raw ore exports to local value creation. Zimbabwe, for example, aims to ban lithium exports by 2027 and has already increased revenues nearly tenfold in a single year. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda are advancing battery production hubs, while countries such as Ghana and Namibia are investing in refining and processing industries. Initiatives like the Zambia-DRC Executive Battery Council and upcoming special economic zones for Electric Vehicles and battery manufacturing show a clear ambition to move up the value chain.
Governance and investment climate remain central. The DRC’s appointment of an experienced mining executive as Mines Minister signals reform intent, while the African Development Bank is exploring a mineral-backed unit of account to stabilise project financing. The Gulf states are strategically positioning themselves, with the United Arab Emirates investing over US$70 billion in mining and renewable energy, while Saudi Arabia pursues long-term partnerships.
Global initiatives such as the UN’s proposed Global Minerals Trust aim to manage price volatility and promote sustainability. However, risks include political instability, fragile supply chains, and environmental and social concerns. Africa’s opportunity lies in converting its geological wealth into industrial strength, ensuring the continent becomes a leader rather than just a supplier in the green transition.
